5 Reasons Why I'm not Surprised by Herman Cain's Newfound Popularity

The latest unlikely frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary race is Herman Cain.  Much of the fascination surrounding him comes from the fact that he's an African American who's somehow garnered a sizable chunk of the market share in a party that is often thought to be anti-Black.   But frankly I'm not all that surprised by the candidate's recent success.  Here's why...

1) The Weakness of the Field

It's already been said by just about every pundit, but this year's crop of candidates happens to be exceptionally weak.  If it weren't for the fact that the economy is in tatters, the 2012 general election would have been a foregone conclusion.  It's particularly telling that the current favourite is a Mormon, who, at various times in the past, has been pro universal healthcare, pro abortion, and pro civil unions, and who lost by a landslide 4 years ago.  It's clear that at this point the Republicans just want to elect someone that can put a decent sentence together just to give themselves a chance at unseating Obama.

2) The Newcomer Advantage

When I was in grade 12 there was a new kid who transferred to my high school to play basketball.  For the first few weeks it seemed every girl in the school wanted to date him, and he was all that they talked about.  However, within a few months the luster had worn off and he was forced to resume his previous role as a middling in the male pecking order, a role that was more commensurate with his average looks and 6th-man basketball acumen.  My point is that there is often a mystique surrounding the new kid on the block.  In politics this status carries the added advantage that, as a newcomer, you probably haven't been vetted to the same extend as your opponents, so any vulnerabilities in your record have yet to be exposed.  This couldn't be any more true of Herman Cain, a former pizza tycoon, who's never held public office.  I suspect that once people get a better sense of who he is, he'll return to obscurity just as quickly as he left it.

3) The Obama effect

When Obama won the primary race against Hillary Clinton in 2008 I was surprised.  But since then I've come to realize just how unpredictable electoral politics can be.  Studies showed that Obama did indeed pay a penalty for being black - a significant numbers of voters in several states admitted that they wouldn't vote for him because of his race.  To make matters worse, several organizations, most notably Women's Voices of North Carolina, who supported Hillary Clinton, were employing voter suppression tactics, including calls to black households instructing them to vote on the wrong day.  However, in the end, none of this was enough to change the outcome of the election.

4) The "Good Negro" Paradox

To me this is the most obvious of the reasons.  Although they generally dislike most blacks, racist whites have always had an affinity for what was once referred to as "the good negro".  A hundred years ago a good negro would have been someone who made sure to lower his gaze around whites and always addressed white people with a deferential "yes sir" or "yes ma'am" even if the white person was much younger than him.  Today a good negro is one who is overtly grateful for the opportunities granted to him by American capitalism, and who never ever ever ever mentions racism unless it's for the purpose of admonishing his fellow blacks for overusing the so-called "race-card".  In this respect, not only is Herman Cain a good negro.  He's one of the best.

5) The Law of Abstraction

Voters tend not to think of public figures in the same way that they do other people in their lives.  Instead, we tend to think of public figures and celebrities in more abstract terms.  Barack Obama, for example, is more of an idea than a fellow human being for all but the 0.0000001% of the population who have actually met and conversed with him.  For this reason, the usual xenophobic proclivities that govern our daily interactions don't operate in the same way when it comes to politicians.  Many of the people who voted for Obama in 2008 would be less than thrilled if young Barry showed up at their house on Thanksgiving as their daughter's latest squeeze.  In fact, modern history is full of examples of women and members of persecuted minorities who managed to ascend to the highest political office.  Would any sane person argue that Pakistan, India, Bengladesh, or the Phillipines had somehow transcended patriarchy when they elected female heads of government at times when the vast majority of the ostensibly more progressive Western states had yet to do so?  Perhaps not.