My jury of one is out on this film. Not being invited to any screenings, I can only go on the previews and they leave me feeling ambiguous.
The film could be a huge success because:
The visuals are incredible. James Cameron has managed to animate the gaudy yet intricate sci-fi art of countless book covers. He's brought to life the internal cinema of many sci-fi fan;
Cameron's created a world with its own language and culture (cobbled from real sources no doubt but still seeming self-contained), ecosystem and physical laws. It are these details sci-fi fans go nana over.
Cameron's given his world a contempory slant. The villains this time are rapacious humans. The film resounds with the injustice of colonisation and environmental exploitation.
But the film could be a great flop because:
The visuals are over the top. I wonder if a viewer will tolerate two hours and forty minutes of sensory bomabardment. Plus, the visuals may get in the way of our attempts to empathize with the characters.
Cameron's world is too detailed. Escapism is fine, but a world which is too far removed from the viewers, too cluttered with its complexities will flop.
Cameron's preaching. While I don't disagree with cinema addressing past wrongs, I doubt that a sci-fi adventure sfx-fest is the best vehicle.
I guess I'll know when I see it on the 16th.
I'm gonna go with flop. As you said, the spfx are over-the-top, the creatures all look like characters from Fern Gully. Casting Sigourney was a smart choice, but not casting Michael Biehn - come on!
the opening reviews, (to everyone's shock) have been fantastic.
There are two interpretations. 1) In anticipation of other excoriating reviews, the reviewers have been exceedingly soft; 2) the film is actually pretty good.
I trust James Cameron enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. The early reviews have also been almost uniformly positive.