When newly elected Mexican President Felipe Calderon sent 6,500 federal troops to the state of Michoacan in 2006, it marked the beginning of one of the bloodiest drug wars in history. There are currently 45,000 troops, as well as state and federal police forces, working to combat the drug smuggling cartels throughout Mexico.
While many point to the increasing level of corruption as the reason for the lack of success that the anti-drug forces have had to date, the reality of the situation is that Mexican forces are simply not equipped to battle the sophistication that these cartels have established in their complex criminal networks. The corruption, intimidation and violence that these cartels are able to establish throughout Mexican society makes it nearly impossible for domestic forces to combat them.
In 2010 alone, there was over 11,000 casualties associated with the drug war, and that number is likely on the conservative side. The number of people that have died in Mexico has increased significantly since 2006, and the recent escalation in violence has reached new heights.
While the Americans are busy fighting illegal wars on the other side of the world, the violence on their own border is much bloodier and poses much more of a significant threat to the country than Afghanistan and Iraq do. The violence has been leaking over the border, with the cartels operating primarily along border cities, including Ciudad Juarez, which is directly on the Texas border.
Among the cartels, the Juarez, Tijuana, Los Zetas and Beltran-Leyva ones are associated with one another, while the Gulf, Sinaloa and La Familia make up the opposing force. They have created such a level of intimidation throughout all levels of society that they are able to conduct their operations without fear of prosecution. Police chiefs, mayors and senators have all been the target of corruption. Those who cooperate are compensated handsomely, while those who refuse are taken care of in short order. In 2010 alone, 12 mayors were killed throughout various northern Mexican states, and the likelihood of elected officials speaking out against the violence seems to become less likely with each passing day.
President Obama sent federal agents and members of the National Guard to the border in 2009, but all this is doing is trying to keep the violence out of the United States, rather than helping combat the actual violence on the ground. The cartels are heavily armed, with various Kalashnikov variants, M16's , .50 cal's and M2 Carbines, so even if American troops are ordered to combat them, it will surely not be an easy task.
The name Pablo Escobar is synonymous with drug trafficking, and it was the work that he did in moving cocaine from Columbia to the United States that laid the framework for the current state of affairs. Cocaine, marijuana and methamphetamine are moved across the American border at a staggering rate, with as much as 90% of the cocaine used in the US coming across the Mexican border.
Nixon first declared a “War on Drugs” in 1971, and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) was established in 1973 as a result. Since then, American forces, including the CIA, have been attempting to combat the worldwide production and distribution of illicit substances. But much of this work has been largely unsuccessful as anytime a major distributor is knocked off or arrested, there are countless others waiting in the wings willing to take over his distribution channel. The Americans have also been part of the corruption that the drug trade creates, as the situations in Panama with Manuel Noriega highlighted. With the sale of these drugs producing tens of billions of dollars annually, it is easy to understand how the Americans wanted to dip into that pot.
There has been pressure from politicians withing Central and Southern America to reexamine the American drug policy, as it is clearly failing and creating thousands of unnecessary deaths. If the United States were to decriminalize marijuana, and treat it as a public health problem as opposed to a threat to national security, the amount of violence would likely decrease significantly.
At the end of the day the root of the problem in Mexico is the demand for drugs within America. Instead of pouring billions of dollars into arresting and prosecuting mid-level dealers by federal agents, the funds would be much more effective if they were put towards treatment at the community level. But instead of doing something along these lines, as a report commissioned by the Clinton administration suggested, there have instead been cuts to treatment and prevention programs by more than $70 million.
Forces are supposed to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014, and whether or not that actually happens is anyones guess at this point, but it might be at that point when the Americans realize that they have been ignoring the real threat to their security for years. From 2009 to 2010, the number of people that died in Mexico increased by almost 70%, and that number does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. By the time that American policy makers realize what is happening in their own back yard, the situation in Mexico could be too far gone to control.
The cartels already act without fear, as they have broadcasted murders on YouTube, tossed body parts into night clubs and publicly announced themselves on banners throughout cities. They have already significantly impacted the Mexican economy as a whole, with foreign investors becoming increasingly wary of putting their money into the unstable nation. Finance Minister Agustin Carstens has said that it has already reduced the GDP by 1%, which is rather significant for such a large economy.
Any policing force that attempts to deal with the violence, weapon trafficking and drug dealing will be met by the same problems that “coalition” forces have been met by in Iraq and Afghanistan. The locals are either scared of the cartels, paid off by them, or respect them as folk heroes. In an attempt to maintain a level of respect and protection within Mexico, many of these cartels invest in parts of the community that the government tends to ignore. They build schools and hospitals in cities and villages and the citizens are much more likely to side with them than the army forces.
So why is there not being more done on the ground in Mexico to combat the powerful drug cartels? The Mexican army and police are either corrupt or outgunned, and the aid from the States has been minimal. Why try to bring freedom and democracy to nations on the other side of the world who you deal with sparingly, while the war raging in your own back yard is arguably worse? Well it is a matter of resources, or a control there of. We all know about the plethora of black gold that comes out of the ground in the Middle East, so the American presence there is as much about freedom as it is about keeping an eye on the most valuable natural resource in the world. Mexico on the other hand lacks such natural resources that require such control. The hope seems to be that these cartels will eventually kill each other off with limited collateral damage.
Is there any hope for Mexico? Well the continued criminalization of marijuana creates an enormous market that these drug traffickers continue to fill. American policy only places agents along the border rather than on the front lines. Corruption, intimidation and violence is so widespread in Mexican culture than it would be almost impossible to reverse. The threat to international security supposedly comes from men using IED's rather than American made M16's.
By the time that we realize what is going on in Mexico, it will be much too late.
