The 2008 Democratic primary was one of the more closely contested in recent memory. The race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to become the Democratic nominee stretched well into the summer, with the two trading barbs up until the nomination was decided in early June. Clinton spent the campaign taking shots at Obama's relative inexperience, while Obama claimed Clinton was a remnant of the Washington establishment. But despite trading barbs throughout the campaign the two managed to stay civil, keeping the discourse focused on policy and experience. The two in essence were the same candidate wrapped in slightly different packaging.
The 2012 Republican primary on the other hand has tossed any and all civility out the window. The four remaining candidates, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Ron Paul differ hugely not only in regards to their experience, but their actual political positions as well. Romney, the former Governor from Massachusetts has the resume to be a viable presidential candidate. He governed successfully as a moderate, had enormous success in the private sector, and certainly looks the part. Of course he came in with a few liabilities as well. A Mormon, southern evangelicals who traditionally make up the Republican base would be suspicious of his religious background. But while Mormonism remains a strange unknown to most Americans, the reality is that their values for the mostly coincide with everyday Christians. What's really tripping up Romney are not the relatively liberal stances he took while governing Massachusetts, including of course the model upon which Obama created his healthcare reforms, but the fact that he switched positions as soon as it became convenient. Ironically, if Romney just skipped the 2008 election against McCain (when he was forced to take positions to the right of the already centre/right McCain) and just presented himself as the moderate alternative this year, he'd win in a cakewalk. Unfortunately, while the American public may excuse a lot, what they don't tolerate is shameless opportunism. For the record, Romney has been on both sides of abortion, climate change, healthcare, and the Wall Street bailout. John Kerry misspoke once and he was nailed to the wall after that.
Santorum and Paul, who both garner substantial but not terribly significant support, represent the old and new guards of the Republican Party. Santorum, a staunch social conservative is one of the last remaining relics of the Bush Jr. era, in which the solution to every problem is banning abortion and hating gays. Santorum managed to win Iowa, but for him and his kind, their time has mostly passed. While abortion remains a highly divisive issue, most young people are starting to trend heavily to the left on most social issues, including gay rights. Give it another generation and we'll remember candidates like Santorum with the same horror as Strom Thurman.
Ron Paul on the other hand, despite his advanced age and cantankerous attitude, ironically represents the next generation of Republicans. What George W. will be remembered most for, besides blundering the Iraq war, were his administration's nonsensical positions and ideological inconsistencies. He campaigned as an old school foreign policy conservative, but engaged in huge nation building projects. He touted himself as a small-government President, but ran up huge deficits and created a massively expensive prescription drug plan. In other words, he just didn't make sense. Ron Paul on the other hand does what he says, and says what he means. He's a libertarian, and regardless of what the polls may say, remains so come hell or high water (well, except for abortion). Sure, he's unelectable because of his embrace of weirdo conspiracy theories and a racially suspect past, but much like Howard Dean paved the way for Barack Obama, Paul will create the model upon which Republicans will campaign in the future.
Which leaves us with Newt Gingrich. Gingrich, a remnant of the Clinton era, remains the race's most enigmatic and fascinating figure. Gingrich, with his victory in South Carolina, has been anointed the 'Romney-alternative' for those who don't trust Romney's chameleon conservationism. Unfortunately for Republicans, what they may have gotten in Gingrich is a total and complete nutcase. A serial adulterer married three times, Gingrich was one of Bill Clinton's staunchest critics during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, even calling for his impeachment, despite the fact that he was carrying on his own extra-marital affair at the very same time.
Gingrich has brought his special brand of vicious craziness into his dogfight with Romney. After emerging as Romney's primary opponent, Romney expectantly turned his well-financed campaign machine against Gingrich. But Gingrich took it personally, and in essence, decided to scorch the earth. Gingrich's super-Pac bought a 30 minute, anti-Romney hit piece, and released it online. There isn't a debate that goes by where Gingrich doesn't call Romney a liar lacking a moral compass. If your fellow Republicans are saying these things about you, what's the likelihood people are going to vote for you in November?
So where does this leave Obama? Laughing, naturally. At the beginning of the race, Romney was Obama's only credible candidate, and Gingrich has essentially knee-capped him. The Republican Party has been broken for a long time, but maybe this brutal primary will finally be the catalyst for someone to start fixing it.
