UFC 109 Thoughts And Predictions

All things considered, Saturday's UFC card isn't half bad. If you shuffled around the order of some of the fights it would gain back alot of legitimacy; in my opinion, which I'm sure isn't all that unique, the headlining fight between Randy Couture and Mark Coleman just isn't very relevant. Still, there are quite a few fights worth watching.

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

This may have been an exciting match up in the earlier days of the UFC, but now it really just feels like an exhibition match between two fighters on the tail end of their careers. I know Coleman beat Stephan Bonner at UFC 100 but so what, it's getting abundantly clearer that Bonner really doesn't have what it takes to beat anybody who is beyond mediocre. Couture, who keeps claiming that he's still learning, just hasn't looked that good lately, dropping consecutive bouts to Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira before winning (but not really winning) a controversial decision over Brandon Vera in the light heavyweight division. I respect the hell out of Couture, don't get me wrong, but his days at the top of the heap are over and his name should not be mentioned in the title contention discussion, though it inevitably will be. Randy by clear decision.

Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt

This fight, if I have my facts straight, has immediate title implications. However, neither fighter is enough of a draw to headline over Randy Couture, which is understandable, but don't get it twisted: this fight is far more important. Marquardt has looked phenomal lately, steamrolling through top flight competition like Wilson Gouveia and Demian Maia. Right now he looks like the only legitimate threat to Anderson Silva's 185 pound crown. On the other hand, I'm not too sure about Chael Sonnen. His win over the highly ranked Yushin Okami put him high on the contender list, and he's certainly tough, but I think he's outgunned and thoroughly outclassed here. Look for Nate to stop him in dominating fashion.

Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

Aside from when he fought GSP, I just can't help but like Matt Serra. I find his Pesci-esque character infinitely entertaining. I also think he's been a bit underrated, not many people thought he'd put up as good of a fight as he did in a losing (but not really losing) effort against Matt Hughes, and the pounding he got from Georges isn't really a fair way to judge his skill (everybody's gotten pounded by George). Trigg just strikes me as someone whose bark is far worse than his bite, and he's proven this time and time again, being unable to back up his words whenever faced with high calibre opponents. Serra is undersized at 170 but still possesses heavy hands, which I think will be the deciding factor against Trigg's mechanical stand up game.

Paulo Thiago vs. Mike Swick

Alot of people sleep on Paulo Thiago, dismissing his debut win over Josh Koscheck as a fluke. I'd have to argue against that; people need to understand that MMA is recreation to Thiago, this is a man who engages in firefights with gangs in the Brazilian favelas for a living, a fight is not going to phase him (the dude's probably killed people). And, while Mike Swick looked outstanding in his win against Ben Saunders, Swick looked absolutely shook in his following match against the hard hitting Dan Hardy (no pun intended, but fuck you, that's a pun anyways). I can't help but take the unpopular opinion here and say that Thiago will wear down and eventually break Swick, who will realize that he's in a much tougher fight than he anticipated.

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

While everyone is familiar with Maia's Brazilian Jiu Jitsu wizardry (though some many have unfairly forgotten following his crushing loss to Marquardt), Dan Miller remains a relative unknown to me. It's no secret that you don't want to hit the ground and get drawn into a grappling match with Maia - he's as good pulling guard as he is on top - but his takedowns are underrated and he almost always finds a way to get it to the ground. Since I don't know too much about Miller I'm going to have to go with the betting line and predict Maia by submission.