With Vitor Belfort pulling out of his title match with Anderson Silva with a shoulder injury, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist Demian Maia will step in to fight for the UFC's middleweight title. While Chael Sonnen would be the preferred choice, having beaten two top contenders in Nate Marquardt and Yushin Okami, Sonnen is on medical suspension for the damage he took working towards his win last weekend. Maia gets the nod over Marquardt simply because of the results of their latest fights.
Maia, who lost in devastating fashion to Marquardt some time ago, was the last man to beat Sonnen, and his loss against Marquardt remains his only defeat in mixed martial arts competition. Styles make fights: Maia's ground game beats Sonnen's wresting, Marquardt bulls over Maia standing up, and Sonnen's wet blanket style smothers Marquardt.
The reported Maia vs. Silva fight is a dangerous stylistic match up for either man: everybody knows that the way to defeat Maia is on the feet and Silva has only - briefly - looked vulnerable on the ground. If Maia can't get this fight to the ground early - and avoid punishment on the way in - it could very well be a bad night for him. While his fight against Dan Miller showed that his stand up game has improved, Dan Miller is no Anderson Silva.
I still believe that the only way to beat Anderson Silva is on the ground, and, if Maia can get the fight there (emphasis on the word 'if'), he has the tools to pull the upset.
let's say belfort had a 30% chance of beating silva... well, sonnen would have about an 80% chance of beating belfort, which would result in a chael sonnen championshipo reign, and would be, quite frankly, intolerable.