Why I Want Mitt to Beat Newt

Before beginning this blog, full disclosure demands that I identify myself as one of the 99%.  Not in the sense that, if I were an American I'd be in the bottom 99% in terms of my income.  Although I'm very much in that 99% as well.  Rather, my membership in the 99% is premised on the well-founded estimate that among all the reasonable, non-demagogic, non-fanatical, non-racist observers of American politics, 99% of these people want Obama to vanquish the republican nominee and win re-election in November.  I'm part of that 99%.  Given this somewhat subjective statistic, you'd think Obama would be destined for an easy victory.  Unfortunately however, within the American body politic, the combined ranks of the demagogues, the racists, and religious nutcases (all of which bear significant overlap) comprise a significant portion of the electorate.  So while Obama is currently a slight favourite to win the election in November, very few people are predicting a cakewalk.

So just to be safe, many Obama supporters are hoping for Newt Gingrich to win the Republican party's nomination.  This is a purely strategic calculation, since Gingrich is slightly more reactionary than the alternative, Mitt Romney, making his positions less favourable to liberals.  However, the common wisdom is that Gingrich has so much baggage, and is so prone to spontaneous self-destruction, that he'd be a much easier person for Obama to beat in the general election.  I understand this argument, but I don't agree with its conclusion.  I fear a Newt Gingrich primary victory could be disastrous, not just because of his potential to pull off an upset over Obama, but because if the economy suddenly tanks in reaction to the looming European crisis, and the electorate decides to go with anybody but Obama, a Newt Gingrich presidency could be a calamity, not just for The States, but for the whole world.

The other reason I fear a Gingrich-versus-Obama contest is much more personal.  Make no mistake, I absolutely despise both Gingrich and Romney.  But this has more to do with my personal affinity toward Obama...

As a progressive, I've watched with perpetual disenchantment as the president has repeatedly appeared to cave to the browbeating and intransigence of the Republicans in congress.  Yet, when you look at Obama's resume and list all the things he's been able to quietly accomplish in spite of an opposition party whose only goal is to deny Obama any kind of victory, it's pretty impressive, even from a progressive standpoint.  He ended the Iraq War, ended DADT, averted a  great depression, passed the first universal (albeit significantly flawed) healthcare bill in the country's history, and merked Osama Bin Laden.  I know that last item isn't a progressive victory per se, but I really hated that fucker [Bin Laden].

But I personally think Obama is kicking ass.  And all this is in spite of being the first ever Black president and all the unique pressures and challenges that go with that.   I was in high school when Clinton was in his second term, so my frame of reference for the obstacle faced by other Democratic presidents is somewhat shallow.  But I know Clinton didn't have to contend with the racism that Obama is constantly, yet subtly confronted with everyday.  Since he took office, we've heard one Republican hack after another accuse Obama of being arrogant, uppity, a socialist, and a foreigner, none of which could be further from the truth.  When you watch unedited footage of White House press conferences and briefings, the way some of the reporters address the president, you'd think they were talking to a summer intern.  Just this morning a photo was released of the disgraced, pathetic, racist Arizona governor Jan Brewer apparently excoriating the president while wagging her index finger in his face as he exited Air Force One in Phoenix.  Obama, being the consummate professional, remained calm and didn't respond in kind.  But can you imagine the reaction if he did?  Can you imagine if he had returned fire and put Brewer in her place, the way she deserved to be?  The headlines in right-wing and mainstream newspapers would have read "Obama Loses His Cool!", in other words "Scary Black Man Threatens Helpless White Woman".

This is why I get so frustrated with white liberals who disparage the president for lacking a backbone, with no appreciation for the tightrope that he has to walk as a black man.  This is also why I fear an Obama-Gingrich race.  One of the things that I didn't anticipate when Obama first began to enjoy some success in the 2008 primary, was how personally I would take the unfounded attacks against him.  As a black man myself, it sometimes felt like I was listening to an uncle getting accused of a crime he didn't commit, or being physically accosted while handcuffed so he couldn't properly defend himself.  What compounded my frustration was seeing the blatant racism of some of the Hillary Clinton supporters from Obama's own party. It was a painful reminder of the long distance we as a society have to travel before we can lay any claim to this mythical "post-racial" landscape that some commentators keep touting.

Needless to say, Gingrich supporters will be like Hillary supporters on steroids.  And that's to say nothing of the deliberately confrontational, bellicose pronouncements of the candidate himself.  Having seen the Republicans'  appetite for brazen, remorseless bigotry, I can picture their base eating up all the red meat that Gingrich will be eager to serve up for them.  And I can see Obama having to avoid calling Gingrich out on his bigotry, lest he be construed as "playing the race card".

No matter who the nominee is, the race will be ugly.  But I'm confident that either way, Obama will find his way to victory.  The main question now is how much shit he's going to have to walk through to get there, and how divided a country he'll have to govern when he comes out the other end.